Vijay, despite the loud message from his delayed arrival at the road-show/stampede venue, and more so his continued inaccessibility for fans-turned-cadres after graduating from a super-star to a political party leader with electoral ambitions, refuses to change. Or, so it seems, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Growth remains weak, inflation is within 2-6% range, rate cut would help recoup forex reserves
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for the current financial year, lower than 5.4 per cent in the last fiscal. Assuming a normal monsoon this year, CPI (consumer price index-based) inflation for the current year is projected at 4.5 per cent, with Q1 at 4.9 per cent, Q2 at 3.8 per cent, Q3 at 4.6 per cent, and Q4 at 4.5 per cent.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
United States President Donald Trump on Tuesday said India has not been a good trading partner and announced that he will raise the tariffs on New Delhi 'very substantially' over the next 24 hours because it is buying Russian oil.
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
For five consecutive policy reviews in 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chose to hold rates, citing inflation threat. And when the prices did cool off a bit, it reminded all about the target to get the headline consumer price inflation at 4 per cent and the risks from food inflation. Heading into the new year, all eyes are on when RBI will cut the rates, especially after one of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members stressed on the need for such an action in the face of the US Federal Reserve's guidance for easing rates.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
At the same time, banking sources close to the development said the central bank could raise its growth target from 5-6 per cent to 6.5 per cent to accommodate the impact of an improving monsoon and the growth impetus provided through various fiscal and monetary stimulus packages earlier in the year. The cautious outlook on interest rates is primarily to accommodate rising inflationary expectations in the economy.
Gold prices hit a fresh record high of Rs 84,900 per 10 grams in the national capital on Friday, driven by robust domestic demand and strong global cues, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity continued its ascent for the third straight session, jumping by Rs 1,100 to hit a new peak of Rs 84,900 per 10 grams.
The Indian government has introduced a bill in the Lok Sabha to ban online games played with money, aiming to curb addiction, money laundering, and financial fraud. The bill also targets advertisements and financial transactions related to such games.
The RBI, which has been keeping rates at an elevated level citing high inflation, wants it to come down to 6 per cent by January 2016.
Wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 2.61 per cent in May. It was (-) 4.18 per cent in June 2023.
Vegetable rates may ease from September, led by tomato prices, which have started showing signs of correction on the back of increased supply, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday. "Looking ahead, the spike in vegetable prices in July is starting to see a correction, led by tomato prices. "New arrivals of tomatoes in mandis are already softening the prices, coupled with proactive supply management in the case of onions.
The country's biggest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki India, has raised concerns about the continuing slide in small car sales.
India will oppose the World Bank funding to Pakistan next month, arguing that Islamabad has used such funds in the past to procure arms and ammunitions. India previously lobbied against the IMF extending a USD 2.3 billion assistance to Pakistan earlier this month, presenting evidence of Pakistan's misuse of funds for military purposes. India feels that Pakistan has failed to act on terror emanating from its territory and has been diverting funds from multilateral agencies to buy arms and ammunition.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday projected a GDP growth of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, which is lower than the 7.3 per cent expansion estimated for the current fiscal. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said rural demand continues to gather pace, urban consumption remains strong and investment cycle is gaining steam on the back of increased capex.
The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The continuing global uncertainity has complicated the fight against inflation, opined Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 8. According to the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also mentioned that there is considerable uncertainty due to a host of global factors such as rising non-oil commodity prices. The RBI on February 8 hiked the key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep policy rate unchanged for third time in a row as it maintains heightened vigil on inflation. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
Strategic affairs experts express concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs on India, his 'bullying tactics,' and increasing attempts to hyphenate New Delhi with Islamabad, signaling a potential shift in the bilateral relationship.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, Maruti, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Nestle, Bharti Airtel and Adani Ports were the biggest gainers. Tata Consultancy Services emerged as the only laggard.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has barred four non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), including two microfinance institutions (MFIs), from sanctioning and disbursing loans for charging exorbitant interest rates to the borrowers. These four entities are Asirvad Microfinance, Arohan Financial Services (also an MFI), DMI Finance, which provides personal, consumption, and micro, small and medium enterprises loans, and Flipkart co-founder Sachin Bansal's Navi Finserv, which offers home and personal loans. The ban will take effect on October 21 to "facilitate closure of transactions in the pipeline", the regulator said in a statement.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
India has opposed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) proposal to extend fresh loans of USD 2.3 billion to Pakistan, citing concerns that the funds could be misused for financing state-sponsored cross-border terrorism. India abstained from voting at the IMF meeting, expressing concerns about Pakistan's track record and the possibility of debt financing being misused for terrorism. The IMF took note of India's statements and its abstention from the vote. India's opposition comes at a time when military conflict between India and Pakistan has intensified following a terrorist attack in Kashmir.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
RBI unsure whether to cut rates or not in its next monetary policy.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said inflation management cannot be "singularly" left to the monetary policy as a majority of activities are outside its purview in the current context. Speaking at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier, the finance minister said that both the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have to work together to contain inflation. Consumer price index (CPI) based inflation or retail inflation is ruling above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent since January.
With the 115 bps reduction in repo rate beginning February, banks have already transmitted 72 bps to the customers on fresh loans and some large banks have transmitted as much as 85 basis points.
N Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Consumer Products, has said in the company's annual report for FY25 that India remains one of the bright spots of economic growth amid a volatile global environment. He said India's long-term growth was underpinned by strong demographic and economic fundamentals as well as structural reforms.
Recent measures by Indian government to push economic reforms have dispelled fears of policy paralysis, while some more steps are needed for reviving investments and ensuring that household savings go into productive sectors, top banker Chanda Kochhar said.
The wholesale inflation rose for the third consecutive month in May at 2.61 per cent on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables, and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 1.26 per cent in the previous month. It was (-) 3.61 per cent in May 2023. "Positive rate of inflation in May, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum & natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the ministry of commerce & industry said in a statement on Friday.
